"Brian, The Life of" (familycar)
11/05/2019 at 12:40 • Filed to: crystal ball gazing
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"Brian, The Life of" (familycar)
11/05/2019 at 12:40 • Filed to: crystal ball gazing | 1
| 15 |
This post is inspired by a recent social media interaction
with a friend
who I consider both thoughtful and highly prescient. The discussion was spurred by the FCA/PSA merger. His take was essentially: “w
e will see way more of this.”
Basically his predictions were:
Europe will end up with one non-German automaker propped up by the French government, two German companies - VAG and Mercedes-BMW , and a few stray brands owned by Asian companies (Volvo, JLR, Ferrari).
The US will end up with GM and maybe Ford with Tesla either as a company or a captured brand
Japan will have Toyota and one other with whatever else survives rolled into one .
The Koreans will have one combined
China will have maybe two
That’s what he predicts is going to be it for large volume OEMs in the car business of the future and I can easily see this happening. What do y’all think?
This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja:
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 13:19 |
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I think Honda is not going anywhere anytime soon. Aside from that, could be!
Stapleface-Now Hyphenated!
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 13:26 |
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It makes sense, even if I don’t like it.
I think the auto enthusiast in general is a minority. As such, there’s not much business sense to cater to them and offer too many choices. The automobile as a whole will go through some changes with autonomy, and I think by and large, there’s a pretty substantial subset of the population that would be okay with this.
We will get more and more mergers as there will be a need to pool resources and lower costs. Look to banking or telecom for how the automotive landscape will eventually be. Your choices will essentially be down to about 3-4 cars in every segment (if you’re lucky).
Snuze: Needs another Swede
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 13:37 |
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From an alternate angle, I think it’s more or less inevitable as a product of optimization. External factors (crash safety, emissions, etc.) conspire to push each towards an “optimum” solution. If every manufacturer converges on a single solution, there becomes less to differentiate them from one anoth er. The push towards EVs exasperates this because electric motors are basically the same vs. IC engines which all have different sounds and “feels” that are inherent to their design (cylinder count, layout, induction method, not to mention fine tuning). Any differences in electric motors can generally be tweaked via software tuning. Us enthusiasts, people that appreciate these differences, are the outliers. But most people want the “most” car for their dollar, and that’s going to be the driving market force.
RallyWrench
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 13:49 |
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I absolutely agree. It’s also why I think the automotive repair industry as we know it is doomed in the long run. Vehicles will be so tethered to the manufacturers, and will need so much less work as the fleet electrifies, that independents will be further marginalized. Which is why I need to find a different career, or jump to a dealer.
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Brian, The Life of
> RallyWrench
11/05/2019 at 13:58 |
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Damn. That’s a really good point.
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Brian, The Life of
> This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja:
11/05/2019 at 13:59 |
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Hon baru and Friends?
Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 14:01 |
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I’m very sure BMW will stay independent because of the Quandt family who own/control 50% of the company.
Ford and Tesla will stay independent for the same reason.
And with China being so big, I’m betting they’ll have at least 3-4 companies. And those 3-4 companies will probably be either Geely, Great Wall, Changan, Dongfeng, Chery, BYD, FAW, SAIC or GAC.
I think Japan will have at least 4. I don’t see Honda, Mazda or Subaru wanting to become a division of some other company. Hell, even Suzuki remains fiercely independent... also due to family control.
India will likely have at least 2 companies..
Malaysia is likely to have at least one.
Russia is likely to have at least 1 or 2 as well.
Your friend isn’t very familiar how having some key large investors/family control/state control
can negatively impact the likelihood of a merger.
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This is what we'll show whenever you publish anything on Kinja:
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 14:02 |
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I can envision this as an anime kids show. Lots of pastels and big headlight eyes.
My bird IS the word
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 14:23 |
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Product life cycle. Cars are in the mature phase where new improvements are incrimental, differentiation is difficult and manufacturers are competing solely on price. Cars are more of a commodity now sow it should stabilize on a small number of competing (major) firms. On the plus side, you may see more weird cool stuff as companies try to draw customers in. Their profit margins are about to be in the toilet.
MrSnrub
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 14:25 |
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Makes sense. It’s not that different from the current reality, though Mercedes-BMW is hard for me to wrap my mind around. I wouldn’t be shocked if Renault-Nissan splits up and Renault gets absorbed into FCAPSA, though where that leaves Nissan I have no clue. Honda wouldn’t be interested in a merger. Toyota might, but it’s easier to see them gobbling up little guys like Subaru and Mazda (which is already happening) than a big fish like Nissan.
gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> Brian, The Life of
11/05/2019 at 15:02 |
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It was revealed 8+ years ago japan wanted to see consolidation to 3, maybe 4 companies. With rd cost increasing I think it will be hard to justify costs, how to sustain them without huge profit margins
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gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
11/05/2019 at 15:10 |
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Only 2% is owned by the ford family. I also wouldn’t put too much confidence in how a divorce or passing to the next generation couldn’t simply just sell off a controlling stake.
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Brian, The Life of
> gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
11/05/2019 at 15:29 |
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Also “Everyo ne has their price” certainly applies. The car biz is expensive and demands constant efficiency gains. Family owners of such are certainly pragmatic enough to know it’s better to take a lump of cash and/or equity than to see their value reduced because of diminishing ability to compete/profit.
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Manwich - now Keto-Friendly
> gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
11/05/2019 at 15:59 |
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“Only 2% is owned by the ford family.”
Not in terms of voting power. When you look at it in terms of votes, they control more like 40%
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gmporschenut also a fan of hondas
> MrSnrub
11/05/2019 at 19:23 |
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what does nissan bring to the table? They have a shitload of Manf. capacity. Everyone I know that has bought a nissan I’ve heard the same thing “I wanted a rav 4, crv, etc but ___ wanted too much”.. I would just see the owners kill off the nissan models, than to compete with themselves.